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STI: PopStats 2017 Research Conference Report
Read highlights from the 2017 STI: PopStats Research Conference sessions. This report provides an overview of the event's 13 information-packed sessions delivered by PopStats users, partners, and team members.When you receive a 93.33% rating from attendees who said that your conference met or exceeded their expectations, you've got to think you're doing something right. That makes us feel very good, because the whole Synergos Technologies team puts a lot into planning and hosting our annual event in Austin. So, when we receive votes of confidence that let us know that our efforts were appreciated, we're very pleased. While the core of the annual conference stays consistent each year (i.e., STI: PopStats-related insight), we also strive for a diversity of research topics. This year there was plenty of diversity. However, a theme of sorts was also present-using unique sources of data in unique ways. From Trade Area System's "New Alternatives for Measuring Competitor Performance" to Northern Tool's "Evolution of Market and Site Analysis," this year's event shared new ways to find new data sources and use innovative data to solve business problems. Along with an overall high rating this year, we also received many wonderful comments. For example, just some of the comments attendees shared with us are: "Excellent conference." "Great mix of speakers." "Good content this year from researchers with good dialogue from the audience." Feedback from Conference Attendees! Here's more feedback from your peers who attended the STI: PopStats 2017 Research Conference!
Notable Stats
Highlights from attendee comments about sessions:
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How would you rate this conference compared to other conferences of this type?
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What new topics did you hear about this week that you plan to investigate further?
This Conference Report provides an overview of the 2017 Research Conference, including synopses of all the sessions. This Report provides a review for this year's attendees, as well as an overview for those who could not attend the event.
TABLE OF CONTENTS Mon. March 27, 2017
SESSION 1 - In Search of Data at CVS Beyond the U.S. Census Bureau, Jenice Tom, CVS Health Tue. March 28, 2017
SESSION 1 - Top Growth Markets for 2017, Robert Welch, STI Wed. March 29, 2017
SESSION 1 - STI PopStats Methodology, Jeremy Setty
Monday, March 27, 2017
SESSION 1 - In Search of Data at CVS Beyond the U.S. Census BureauPresenter - Jenice Tom, Dir. of Real Estate Market Research & Analytics, CVS Health Jenice Tom presented a business case on estimating sales potential for a particular group of people with no supporting U.S. Census data and demographics. "Even in the today's era of Big Data, retailers still find themselves in need for specialty data for different business needs," she said. This happened at CVS when the merchandising department asked the location research department for data on what percent of the Jewish population lives and works near their stores. They wanted to plan for stocking Jewish merchandise around the annual Passover and Hanukkah holidays, because they learned they were missing out on this business opportunity. A cursory search revealed that this was not going to be a simple task, because the U.S. Census Bureau does not track the population's religious affiliations. "In my years of working in research, I'd never been asked this question. But I decided to try and find an answer." So, the research team began a search for alternative sources to compile this specialty data. The team found a variety of sources including:
CVS used these resources to create a model to identify the strongest predictors of the Jewish population living near CVS stores. The model achieved five levels of store groupings that could be candidates for Jewish merchandise."It turned out to be challenging, but we accomplished our goal," said Jenice. She offered some tips for conducting an alternative research process.
Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 2 - New Alternatives for Measuring Competitor PerformancePresenter - Hartwell Hooper, VP Client Success, Trade Area System Hartwell began searching for ways to research competitors and store performance to better understand market conditions. He ended up going down the proverbial data-research rabbit hole. "Competitor data is one of hardest types of data to nail down," he said. "So, I wanted to explore as many options and opportunities as I could find." What he found is a wide variety of data, ways to apply the data to market research, and ways to use it as proxies for traditional data. Some of the types of data include:
He applied various non-traditional data to different research projects including:
After his journey of discovery into new sources of data, Hartwell reviewed the pros and cons of mobile and credit card data. He recommended others also explore the possibilities of using non-traditional forms of data, because "you never know what you'll discover." Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 3 - Real Estate's Contribution to the Due Diligence Process in Merger in AcquisitionsPresenter - Brian Quinn, Dir. of Market Planning, Tractor Supply Brian discussed the research that went into his company's acquisition process for a pet food retail chain. During the due diligence process, Tractor Supply researched the depth and breadth and opportunities in the pet supply industry, a $63 Billion-plus category. Tractor Supply identified a target specialty niche market in natural pet foods that was open to opportunity. The company's plan was to get in fast and push it hard-so in-depth market research was essential. Tractor has developed nine different customer profiles, including a pet profile. For this research, the company created thematic customer profiling maps of its pet customer profile, which provided a foundation for the evaluation process and making decisions around the acquisition. Along with that, research included market screening, including demographic data, store information, competitive insight, market potential information, and profiling. In particular, an important part of the sale was knowing that there were additional stores they could go after to grow the concept. To gain univariated views of the market potential, Tractor Supply applied additional STI: PopStats datasets to its research-including STI: Spending Patterns and STI: Market Outlook. With that data, the company was able to find where they aligned, where there were holes in the marketplace, and where the "hot spots" were located. Interestingly, after the acquisition, the company found that the higher potential areas identified in the research, were the exact locations where Tractor Supply achieved its highest sales. Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 4 - The Many "Flavors" and Uses of Big DataPresenter - Catherine Manzo, Sr. Dir. of Channel Sales, StreetLight "Big data comes in a lot of flavors," said Catherine. "We refer to a concept called `massive mobile data,' which is data that is being generated by connected vehicles and the user's mobile device or smartphone (in different ways). It's being generated for other purposes, rather than helping real estate people. However, it can be used in retail research-in many interesting ways." There are five primary technical characteristics of massive mobile data including:
Each of these characteristics have different strengths and weaknesses based on location-based services (smartphone data), cellular towers, navigation-based GPS, and ad-based GPS. Catherine overviewed several issues around the use of mobile data including these three points:
Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 5 - Model Thinking with Examples From an Omnichannel MarketplacePresenter - Paige Stover, Sr. Dir. of Analytics, Forum Analytics Paige introduced her topic on how models really work in the real world, "because they'll have limitations, and we have to understand those to gain the most value." In her presentation, she took the approach of thinking like a statistician. Among the insights she shared are:
Paige also talked about channel switching across retail, including online retail trends. She stated that the biggest challenge is how online relates to brick-and-mortar and offered several insights including:
Attendee Feedback:
Tuesday, March 28, 2017
SESSION 1 - Top Growth Markets for 2017Presenter - Robert Welch, President, STI Robert reported in this always-popular session that Top Growth Market Areas' growth levels were so exceptional they overshadowed last year's growth. This annual presentation highlights those market areas that have shown strong growth in the past two years. This is always a favorite session-particularly since the research also shows top market growth since he started the research 11 years ago, because companies can make year-to-year comparisons. Robert related this annual review to the previous Top Growth Market presentations and compared and contrasted those markets. Robert uses the same methodology each year to create the report. The proprietary methodology uses STI: PopStats data and he evaluates U.S. markets based on the following criteria:
In 2017, 31 Top Growth Market Areas had all three criteria-compared to 27 in 2016. The top 10 areas are:
Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 2 - How Massive Mobile Data is Powering Retail Predictive AnalyticsUnderstanding both the strengths and weakness of leveraging new data sources is essential to get the best possible use out of it, said David, as he led off his discussion on massive mobile cell phone data. He described it as basically data from cell phone providers. Cell phone pings cover a relatively large radius area, which is one of the weaknesses, because the pings come from many retailers within general areas. As a result, accuracy of pings is the single biggest issue. Other mobile data weaknesses include:
To overcome the downside of cell data, Academy chose to enter into a partnership with location-enabled automotive navigation apps, instead of cell phone data providers. David said that this data provides greater insight concerning traffic counts and vehicular traffic. However, it does not help pinpoint individual retailers being patronized by customers in shopping centers or street retail areas. Another downside is that the data doesn't include fleet vehicles and older vehicles without this technology installed. Among the advantages of location-enabled app data are the following:
David concluded his session with this comment: "This data doesn't replace great in-store loyalty data and geodemographic data for marketing research. But it can add interesting insights if used correctly and the strengths and weaknesses are well understood." Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 3 - Research, Analysis, and GIS - Beyond Site Selection and Real EstateRich explained that while Academy brought geodemographic data into the company for real estate, other departments within the company began making specific requests for geodemographic research. Some of the requests included:
For the real estate department, Rich created a Regional Analytics Group to help identify market-level attributes that have an effect on stores' GIS-sourced data, economic, competitive info, and field sources. These combine to create a profile of a stores' customer base and to identify merchandising opportunities. Buyers need to identify market-specific dynamics for each store, so they put the right merchandise on the shelves. Analytics provides insights into many aspects of each store including:
Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 4 - From Guts to Glory - the Evolution of Market and Site Analysis at Northern Tool & EquipmentAt end of year, Northern Tool will open its 100th store. The company is located in 19 states, primarily central and southeastern U.S. states. Its greatest competitive advantage is with the sale of small, specialty parts and the fact that it fixes equipment in its stores parts and service departments. Also, the stores do very well before and after national disasters, selling items such as generators and pumps. Site selection advanced over the years from drive bys, owner gut instinct, and area size. By 2000, the company was using third-party consultants for data collection, fieldwork, and sale forecasts on an as-needed basis. In 2012, it advanced to another consulting firm. But along the way, Northern Tool made some mistakes. It then advanced to its new level of market research after it brought GIS in-house. After a few immediate wins and some surprises, it was time to re-tool the process. Beginning in 2016, Northern Tool launched a re-calibrated GIS process through these steps.
Northern Tools re-calibration elicited the following discoveries:
Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 5 - Economic Validity Impact Estimating Wizard (eView)Presenter - Kyle Day, Data Analytics Manager, STI Kyle explained a new system being created at STI that helps companies answer what-if questions. He said that PopStats and other dataset look at current conditions. And forecasts look at what happen if current trends continue. But there is no easy way to translate local knowledge into quantifiable trade area insight if, for example, you know that any specific events happening in an area, such as:
The problem can be solved with input and output modeling. The economy is made up of production and consumption and, therefore, can be measured by input and output ratios analysis, Kyle explained. He also noted that ripple effects from changes in one industry impact other local-area industries and can also be measured. Kyle overviewed how retailers can use this approach in their local-area research:
From this process, researchers will be able to identify what industries will be impacted and what that impact is going to be. STI is preparing to help answer this question industry-by-industry, commodity-by-commodity with eView. Kyle introduced STI's upcoming new eView tool, which will help researchers visualize these calculations to understand the impact automatically. Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 6 - The PopStats DifferencePresenter - Robert Welch, President, STI Robert recognized that today's market researchers are pressed to do more than ever with fewer resources, including answering economic questions about their trade areas. As a result, PopStats has expanded to fill the void by adding economic data to its mix of demographic data. Synergos is "moving in baby steps in this direction beginning with economic problems clients have asked us to help them solve." The result is several powerful economic datasets, which he introduced in this session. This session was a continuation of past year's PopStats in Action presentations. This year, in The PopStats Difference, Robert shared insights on over one dozen PopStats techniques and datasets:
Attendee Feedback:
Wednesday, March 29, 2017
SESSION 1 - STI: PopStats MethodologyPresenter - Robert Welch, STI Robert rounded about the two-and-a-half day Conference with explanations of the PopStats' methodology. He said that the PopStats estimates are calculated on multiple computers working together in a pseudo-parallel processing manner. "We have created a self-correcting artificial intelligence modeling system that learns from itself." Here is a brief description of the methodology. Here is a brief description of the PopStats' methodology. Four models comprise the model:
The PopStats methodology includes automated processes for overcoming any and all anomalies present in the data, including ZIP+4 inaccuracies, data smoothing issues, conversions (lofts), and overrides. If a client has a question about PopStats' estimates, Robert or a member of his team will research the issue. The client should first gather as much detail as possible, include any third-party evidence that supports his or her position, and be patient during the evaluation process. The issue will be verified, and the underlying data and soft sources will be checked. Finally, STI will report back to the client in a timely manner.
SESSION 2 - STI: LandScape MethodologyPresenter - Robert Welch, STI Robert added an in-depth discussion of STI: LandScape's methodology this year, beginning with an overview of the four reasons that neighborhood segments consistently form across the country 80 percent of the time:
Neighborhood segmentation works because the segments change slowly. But one weakness is that while the demographics may indicate a specific consumer type, such as "married with children," the attitudes of the residents may be different that what is expected. For example, some parents may raise their children according to an attitude of ensuring they are always dressed in the latest fashions. Meanwhile, other parents' attitudes could be that "our children will just outgrow their clothing, so we're just going to purchase discount items." LandScape's ten social and lifestyle indicators add a new dimension, and a way to see these attitudinal differences, to the traditional breakdown by demographics.
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