Population Forecast

5 year Forecast - 7.4%

The current population of the Phoenix-Mesa-Tucson, AZ Market is 6,870,027 as of the April 2025 PopStats estimate. PopStat’s Trend models indicate a 5 year population change of 7.4%, resulting in a Population of 7,381,325 by April 2030. This percentage change in Population ranks 7th across STI Markets. The Phoenix-Mesa-Tucson, AZ Market currently ranks 9th in overall population, and will rank 9th by April 2030.

Market Comparison Map - 5 Year Change

5 year Forecast Market Map

Figure 71: 5 year Forecast Market Map

5 Year forecast by Census Tract

5 Year Percentage Change Thematic

Figure 72: 5 Year Percentage Change Thematic

High and Low Range - -1.9% to 21.7%

While the summation of mid range 5 year forecasts foresee a change in Population of 7.4% for Phoenix-Mesa-Tucson, AZ Market. The forecast high ranges of these forecasts leaves open the possibility for a Population change as high as 21.7% at 8,357,951. Similarly a population change as low as -1.9% at 6,739,456 is not without possibility.

Population Trend and Forecast

Figure 73: Population Trend and Forecast

Historical Trend and Forecast

Population Long Trend and Forecast

Figure 74: Population Long Trend and Forecast

10 year Projections - 16.6%

By April 2035 we project the Population of the Phoenix-Mesa-Tucson, AZ Market to be 8,008,353 resulting in a change of 16.6% compared to the current Population. This projected percentage change in Population ranks 6th across STI Markets. The Phoenix-Mesa-Tucson, AZ Market currently ranks 9th in overall population, and will rank 8th by April 2035.

10 year Projections by Census Tract

10 Year Percentage Change Thematic

Figure 75: 10 Year Percentage Change Thematic