Population Forecast

5 year Forecast - 5.2%

The current population of the Jacksonville-Gainesville, FL Market is 2,595,329 as of the January 2026 PopStats estimate. PopStat’s Trend models indicate a 5 year population change of 5.2%, resulting in a Population of 2,729,844 by January 2031. This percentage change in Population ranks 25th across STI Markets. The Jacksonville-Gainesville, FL Market currently ranks 42nd in overall population, and will rank 42nd by January 2031.

Market Comparison Map - 5 Year Change

5 year Forecast Market Map

Figure 71: 5 year Forecast Market Map

5 Year forecast by Census Tract

5 Year Percentage Change Thematic

Figure 72: 5 Year Percentage Change Thematic

High and Low Range - 0.5% to 20.4%

While the summation of mid range 5 year forecasts foresee a change in Population of 5.2% for Jacksonville-Gainesville, FL Market. The forecast high ranges of these forecasts leaves open the possibility for a Population change as high as 20.4% at 3,123,843. Similarly a population change as low as 0.5% at 2,607,361 is not without possibility.

Population Trend and Forecast

Figure 73: Population Trend and Forecast

Historical Trend and Forecast

Population Long Trend and Forecast

Figure 74: Population Long Trend and Forecast

10 year Projections - 11.3%

By January 2036 we project the Population of the Jacksonville-Gainesville, FL Market to be 2,889,346 resulting in a change of 11.3% compared to the current Population. This projected percentage change in Population ranks 26th across STI Markets. The Jacksonville-Gainesville, FL Market currently ranks 42nd in overall population, and will rank 40th by January 2036.

10 year Projections by Census Tract

10 Year Percentage Change Thematic

Figure 75: 10 Year Percentage Change Thematic