Population Forecast

5 year Forecast - -1.3%

The current population of the Buffalo-Rochester, NY Market is 2,806,849 as of the April 2025 PopStats estimate. PopStat’s Trend models indicate a 5 year population change of -1.3%, resulting in a Population of 2,769,437 by April 2030. This percentage change in Population ranks 158th across STI Markets. The Buffalo-Rochester, NY Market currently ranks 37th in overall population, and will rank 41st by April 2030.

Market Comparison Map - 5 Year Change

5 year Forecast Market Map

Figure 71: 5 year Forecast Market Map

5 Year forecast by Census Tract

5 Year Percentage Change Thematic

Figure 72: 5 Year Percentage Change Thematic

High and Low Range - -2.4% to 3.8%

While the summation of mid range 5 year forecasts foresee a change in Population of -1.3% for Buffalo-Rochester, NY Market. The forecast high ranges of these forecasts leaves open the possibility for a Population change as high as 3.8% at 2,913,978. Similarly a population change as low as -2.4% at 2,739,982 is not without possibility.

Population Trend and Forecast

Figure 73: Population Trend and Forecast

Historical Trend and Forecast

Population Long Trend and Forecast

Figure 74: Population Long Trend and Forecast

10 year Projections - -3%

By April 2035 we project the Population of the Buffalo-Rochester, NY Market to be 2,722,035 resulting in a change of -3% compared to the current Population. This projected percentage change in Population ranks 161st across STI Markets. The Buffalo-Rochester, NY Market currently ranks 37th in overall population, and will rank 42nd by April 2035.

10 year Projections by Census Tract

10 Year Percentage Change Thematic

Figure 75: 10 Year Percentage Change Thematic