Population Forecast

5 year Forecast - 2.1%

The current population of the Lancaster-Harrisburg-York, PA Market is 2,170,359 as of the April 2025 PopStats estimate. PopStat’s Trend models indicate a 5 year population change of 2.1%, resulting in a Population of 2,216,923 by April 2030. This percentage change in Population ranks 94th across STI Markets. The Lancaster-Harrisburg-York, PA Market currently ranks 48th in overall population, and will rank 50th by April 2030.

Market Comparison Map - 5 Year Change

5 year Forecast Market Map

Figure 71: 5 year Forecast Market Map

5 Year forecast by Census Tract

5 Year Percentage Change Thematic

Figure 72: 5 Year Percentage Change Thematic

High and Low Range - -1.2% to 6.2%

While the summation of mid range 5 year forecasts foresee a change in Population of 2.1% for Lancaster-Harrisburg-York, PA Market. The forecast high ranges of these forecasts leaves open the possibility for a Population change as high as 6.2% at 2,305,589. Similarly a population change as low as -1.2% at 2,145,187 is not without possibility.

Population Trend and Forecast

Figure 73: Population Trend and Forecast

Historical Trend and Forecast

Population Long Trend and Forecast

Figure 74: Population Long Trend and Forecast

10 year Projections - 4.5%

By April 2035 we project the Population of the Lancaster-Harrisburg-York, PA Market to be 2,267,688 resulting in a change of 4.5% compared to the current Population. This projected percentage change in Population ranks 95th across STI Markets. The Lancaster-Harrisburg-York, PA Market currently ranks 48th in overall population, and will rank 50th by April 2035.

10 year Projections by Census Tract

10 Year Percentage Change Thematic

Figure 75: 10 Year Percentage Change Thematic