Author: Pablo Gonzalez

This week we’re examining three aged communities with a high proportion of Social Security recipients: Jonesboro, AR; Traverse City, MI; and Tampa-Lakeland-Sarasota, FL. While demographic and economic indicators offer a solid overview, data on Social Security recipients provides a clearer and more nuanced understanding of these regions.. 

First, the numbers:

Demographic Composition, Social Security Recipients and Poverty

Let’s first look at social security recipients, poverty and the demographic composition of the areas, including the proportions of children and people over 65:

• Jonesboro, AR has a high poverty rate of 20.2%, suggesting significant economic challenges. The region has 28.6% of its population receiving social security benefits, with 62.4% of those being retirees. This high percentage of social security recipients, along with a considerable proportion of disabled individuals (20%), and children (8.2%) highlights a population that may be economically vulnerable, potentially reliant on social support systems. 
• Traverse City, MI also shows a high percentage of social security recipients (32.4%) and a poverty rate of 12.7%. A notable characteristic of Traverse City is its substantial seasonal population (540,113) with a seasonal ratio of 0.808, indicating many residents live there only part-time. This high percentage of retirees (73.8%) and the transient nature of the population can create economic variability throughout the year. 
• Tampa-Lakeland-Sarasota, FL exhibits a lower poverty rate (12.2%) compared to Jonesboro and is comparable to Traverse City. With 24% of its population receiving social security, primarily retirees (75.5%), Tampa benefits from a substantial retirement community that likely contributes economically through pensions and savings. The lower dependency ratio (68.3) suggests a balanced demographic distribution, supporting economic stability. 

Income and GDP Per Capita

Income levels and GDP per capita are vital indicators of economic health and potential for growth:

• Jonesboro, AR has the lowest GDP per capita ($46,734) and average household income ($63,251) among the three regions. These figures highlight significant economic challenges and suggest limited growth potential unless substantial economic development initiatives are undertaken. 
• Traverse City, MI fares better with a GDP per capita of $57,033 and an average household income of $79,751. While these figures are not as high as those in Tampa, they indicate a moderate economic environment with potential for growth, particularly if seasonal economic activities are effectively managed. 
• Tampa-Lakeland-Sarasota, FL leads with a HHI of $95,795, a GDP per capita of $63,485 and the highest GDP among the three regions ($345.1 billion). These figures, along with its substantial population, suggest a robust economic base with significant disposable income, supporting a wide range of services and industries. 

Seasonal Population and Economic Impact

The impact of seasonal populations can significantly influence local economies:

• Traverse City, MI has a substantial seasonal population (540,113) and a high seasonal ratio (0.808), indicating that many residents live there only part-time. This can create economic fluctuations, with peaks during high seasons and potential challenges during off-peak times. Effective management of these dynamics is crucial for sustained economic health.
• Tampa-Lakeland-Sarasota, FL also has a notable seasonal population (690,083) but with a lower seasonal ratio (0.127), suggesting a more stable year-round population compared to Traverse City. This stability can help maintain consistent economic activity and service provision. 

Conclusion and Recommendations

• Jonesboro, AR faces significant economic difficulties with high poverty rates and low income levels. Economic development initiatives, enhanced social programs, and workforce training are essential to support its population and stimulate growth. Recommendation: Local government should attract Investors that focus on affordable housing, healthcare services, and community development projects to enhance the quality of life and attract new residents.
• Traverse City, MI has moderate economic indicators but must address the challenges posed by its significant seasonal population. Strategies to stabilize economic activity throughout the year and leverage seasonal influxes for long-term investments are critical. Recommendation: Tourism and hospitality investments, coupled with seasonal business models, can drive growth. Developers should consider building vacation homes and seasonal rental properties to accommodate the transient population, but also invest in infrastructure for the permanent population.
• Tampa-Lakeland-Sarasota, FL shows strong economic health with high GDP per capita and substantial income levels. Continued investment in infrastructure, diversified industries, and maintaining economic stability year-round will help sustain its growth and economic resilience. Recommendation: Focus on high-end retail, premium housing developments, and healthcare services to cater to the affluent retiree population. Mixed-use developments that combine residential, retail, and leisure spaces can provide comprehensive solutions for the community.

This high level approach can initiate important conversations about policy decisions and broad economic development strategies. Grocers, retailers, and developers have significant opportunities to contribute to and benefit from these regions’ growth by aligning their investments with the specific economic dynamics of each area.

Locating a storefront, a grocery store or planning a housing development require pinpoint precision, which is where tools like PopStats, which contains over 1,300 variables at the block group level, enable neighborhood by neighborhood analysis to target consumers and communities effectively. This allows for real-time insights into demographic and economic changes, helping businesses and policymakers make data-driven decisions to foster sustainable growth.

Learn more:

https://www.jonesboro.org/467/Economic-Development

https://www.jonesborounlimited.com/

https://traverseconnect.com/

https://www.gtcountymi.gov/

https://tampabayedc.com/

https://tbrpc.org/

We’re entering our second year of delivering the most accurate and up-to-date demographic estimate for Mexico’s diverse population. Our dataset not only paints a vivid portrait of the nation’s demographic landscape but places an emphasis on multiple factors that highlight the socio-economic dynamics of Mexico. Understanding labor force participation is pivotal  to understanding the country’s workforce trends, gender participation nuances, and regional labor disparities. 

In Mexico, the participation of females in the labor force has traditionally been lower than that of males, a reflection of deep-rooted cultural norms and societal expectations that often prioritize domestic responsibilities for women. While Mexico has made significant strides in recent years to empower women economically, the gap remains notable. This stands in contrast to the United States, where the labor force participation rate of women has steadily approached that of men, particularly since the mid-20th century. Feminist movements, supportive policies like maternity leave, and shifting societal expectations have played crucial roles in this uptrend.

The below images show labor force participation and employment status by gender, by state. 

As of July of 2023, the National Occupation and Employment Survey of Mexico, reported a 2.9% unemployment rate on a national level. The survey targets Economically Active persons, who are 15 years or older. There is a slight difference in our reported unemployment rates and their reported rates, due to the fact that we report unemployment considering the entire working population (12+), and they do not due to privacy reasons. 

Drawing a direct comparison, while the United States has been a front-runner in championing women’s rights and their place in the workforce, Mexico’s journey is emblematic of a nation working to reconcile its rich cultural traditions with the evolving demands of a modern economy. The experiences of both nations underline the global imperative to create environments where women are empowered to participate fully and equally in the labor market. Dive into our dataset and equip yourself with the tools to truly understand the heartbeat of Mexico’s population.

Each year, we create a ranking of high growth markets in the US. The method through which we identify a market is somewhat novel and we believe it allows us to identify growth in a unique way, which is not limited by standard predefined geographies. 

First we lay out our criteria, which looks as follows:

• Initial market size is at least 60,000.
• Minimum 2% per annum growth rate.
• Minimum 8,500 person growth rate.
• Emphasis on majority growth in the last 2 years.
• Limit the analysis to the Continental US.

Then we begin drawing 15 mile radius circles and continue this process until the entire US is covered. The resulting polygons with a continuous perimeter of all areas that satisfy this criteria are our qualified markets.

Our results are:

• Over 146,844 markets created
• Of the 146,844 (2022 figures in parenthesis), 32,966 (32,808) had a current base population > 60,000
• 15,347 (20,202) had a per annum growth rate > 2% or
• 2,056 (2,068) had a per annum pop growth > 8,500
• Only 1,198 had all three. 
• Which in turn consolidates to 29 Markets

Rankings Criteria

1. Austin/SA Corridor

2. ~Douglas, CO

3. DFW Metro, TX

Check out how they compare on several key indicators:

Economic Vitality

Housing Values

As we move through the 21st century, numerous countries, particularly in the developed world, are experiencing significant declines in birth rates, which threaten to restructure societies in profound and potentially detrimental ways. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in the United States, where birth rates have seen a sharp drop, a reduction of 6.8% per year in 2022 compared to 2016. Such a demographic shift poses a serious challenge, potentially shaking the foundational structures that underpin nations.

This precipitous decline in birth rates, paired with the simultaneous extension of life expectancy, is resulting in a major shift in the demographic makeup of many societies, with a tilt towards older populations. Economically, this presents a considerable problem: as the proportion of older people increases, so too does the dependency ratio, the ratio of non-working to working age individuals. This imbalance creates immense pressure on younger generations who must shoulder the burden of supporting a larger, older, and non-working population. The social security and healthcare systems are expected to face enormous strains, potentially leading to their insolvency. Additionally, with fewer young people entering the workforce, innovation and economic productivity may stagnate or decline, threatening national and global economic stability.

At the 2023 PopStats Research Conference, Brian Stickland and Dustin Stancil explored the implications of falling birth rates in the US. Their research illuminated a topic that often goes unnoticed despite its pressing significance. The key findings of their presentation are highlighted below.

February 16th, 2023 Update

Since our last update in July 2022, there have been no further updates from the Census Bureau regarding the release of the DHC file. However, we are excited to announce that we are moving up the release of our first 2020 Census baseline estimate from October to July, as we now feel confident in a quick turnaround, dependent on a May 2023 release of the DHC file. As a portion of our customer base has started to use 2020 geographies we have provided our customers with crosswalk tables to help with the translation. To make this transition smoother for our users, a 2010 Census based version translated to 2020 geographies will be available with the April release.

Here’s what to expect from our upcoming releases:

• The April 2023 release will be the first version with a 2020 geography option. Both 2010 and 2020 geography versions will be available. The estimates themselves will continue to be based on a 2010 Census baseline.

• The July 2023 release, which will follow the Census Bureau’s expected release of the 2020 DHC file in May, will be the first version based on the new 2020 baseline. We will also provide a 2010 geography translation version for this release.

• The October release will be the first version available only on 2020 geographies.

What makes Synergos unique, and the reason why we’re the preferred data provider to the majority of industries where site location is mission critical, is that we’re the best at balancing between speed and thoroughness. We appreciate your trust and look forward to navigating these changes with you.

The following Q&A section will hopefully address most of your remaining questions, but please don’t hesitate to reach us through our Contact Us form, or through your primary contact at Synergos for additional information.

 What data specifically is missing, and what data from the 2020 Census has been used in the most recent STI:PopStats estimates?

The low level geography counts that have not yet been released, and which are critical to us for performing a full rebuild are; households, persons per household, vacancies,  age distributions, and race distributions by age.

Has the ACS release in March 2022 been used to produce the current estimates?

In short, yes. The ACS, which is normally delivered in December, was delayed for the first time ever to the end of March of 2022, which means our Q3 July 2022 release, will be the first to leverage this data. Additionally, this ACS data was published on 2020 Geographies and had to be translated to 2010 geographies for incorporation into our products.

Should we be concerned with the results reported by the Post Enumeration Survey (PES)?

The Census Bureau reported that their PES showed an undercount in six states, and an over count in eight states. Given that the PES is based on a 114,000 household survey and on a theoretical model that the Census doesn’t disclose, we ultimately trust the data reported in the Census as the ultimate truth to rebuild our models. For more on the PES click here.

How does this situation compare to the 2010 Census release? 

The SF1 file for the 2010 Census had several versions. The first version was a state-by-state release that occurred between June and August 2011. This allowed us to have our conversion to the 2010 geographies completed by the October 2011 release. If the Census Bureau releases the DHC data around May 2023 that will be about two years behind how the 2010 Census release went.

Why the delay with the 2020 Census Release?

Previous delays could be partially attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic. The current delay centers primarily on the Bureau’s effort to devise a mechanism for keeping personally identifiable information confidential. This is referred to as Differential Privacy, and this evolving methodology will continue to delay an already late release until the Bureau deems it is satisfactorily accomplishing its purpose.  Hopefully this time, the Census Bureau’s publication date of May 2023 holds and does truly provide the necessary time for them to complete this task. 

Curious about PopStats? Reach out and we’d be glad to help!

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